Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $58,907$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.08 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57,004.7}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 41.2)}}\) (asimptote \(57,004.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,566$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.74 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,240.5}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9,240.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,229$ on 2020-06-05

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $284,734$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(3.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{282,944.6}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 52.0)}}\) (asimptote \(282,944.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $40,344$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(5.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,279.1}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(38,279.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $243,162$ on 2020-06-05

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $240,978$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(5.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{230,463.1}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(230,463.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,134$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(6.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,200.9}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,200.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $63,468$ on 2020-06-05

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $234,531$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(4.95 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{228,243.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 42.4)}}\) (asimptote \(228,243.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,774$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(6.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,677.8}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(32,677.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $36,976$ on 2020-06-05

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $42,939$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(3.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,629.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 64.3)}}\) (asimptote \(43,629.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,639$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(524 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,523.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,523.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $38,300$ on 2020-06-05

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $190,180$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(3.86 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{182,752.2}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(182,752.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,114$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(5.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,033.4}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(28,033.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $90,444$ on 2020-06-05

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $47,358$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(9.29 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,528.8}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(45,528.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,024$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,882.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,882.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $41,153$ on 2020-06-05

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,163$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(4.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,695.9}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(24,695.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,670$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(226 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,628.6}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,628.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $795$ on 2020-06-05

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Luxembourg recovered 99%
Croatia recovered 98%
Austria recovered 95%
Malta recovered 91%
Germany recovered 89%
Slovakia recovered 88%
Andorra recovered 88%
Denmark recovered 83%
Lithuania recovered 69%
Italy recovered 66%
San Marino recovered 56%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 53%
Serbia recovered 42%
Romania recovered 40%
Bulgaria recovered 29%

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,032$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.16 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,878.4}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,878.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(29.9 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107.9}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 29.2)}}\) (asimptote \(107.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $37$ on 2020-06-05

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,247$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(525 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,204.8}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,204.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $103$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(18.7 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31$ on 2020-06-05

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,843$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(5.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,921.9}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 28.8)}}\) (asimptote \(15,921.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $672$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(164 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{644.1}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(644.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $429$ on 2020-06-05

Malta⮸

Population $441,543$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $625$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(141 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{585.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(585.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-06-05

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33$ on 2020-06-05