Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $58,907$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.08 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57,004.7}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 41.2)}}\) (asimptote \(57,004.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,566$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.74 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,240.5}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9,240.5\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,229$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $284,734$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(3.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{282,944.6}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 52.0)}}\) (asimptote \(282,944.6\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $40,344$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(5.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,279.1}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(38,279.1\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $243,162$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $240,978$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(5.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{230,463.1}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(230,463.1\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,134$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(6.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,200.9}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,200.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $63,468$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $234,531$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(4.95 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{228,243.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 42.4)}}\) (asimptote \(228,243.5\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,774$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(6.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,677.8}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(32,677.8\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $36,976$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $42,939$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(3.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,629.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 64.3)}}\) (asimptote \(43,629.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,639$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(524 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,523.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,523.9\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $38,300$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $190,180$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(3.86 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{182,752.2}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(182,752.2\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,114$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(5.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,033.4}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(28,033.4\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $90,444$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $47,358$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(9.29 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,528.8}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(45,528.8\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,024$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,882.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,882.0\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $41,153$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,163$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(4.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,695.9}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(24,695.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,670$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(226 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,628.6}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,628.6\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $795$ on 2020-06-05